Central banks face significant challenges in effectively communicating with general public, which is essential for influencing economic decision-making and fostering trust that can lead to lower inflation expectations. Traditional focus groups, while valuable for capturing subjective perceptions, have logistical limitations, making the implementation of Large Language Models (LLM) for pre-testing communications a promising solution to enhance understanding and improve the effectiveness of central bank messages.
This project develops a synthetic focus group (SFG) composed of LLM agents representing individuals with varying sentiments towards the central bank, based on their interviews. The LLM avatars were created using the Deepseek model, calibrated with existing materials from the bank, and compared against interview perceptions. To facilitate the SFG discussion, several prominent LLM models, including Deepseek-r1, Mistral-7b-Instruct, and Gemini-2.5-Pro via Openrouter, were evaluated. Feedback from the Deepseek-r1 model was utilized to enhance the central bank's report, which was then re-submitted for further discussion.
Experimental results demonstrate SFGs are a viable alternative to traditional focus groups. Revisions to a Bank of Russia document, informed by SFG feedback, were statistically validated using two new SFGs (identical agents, no prior discussion context). The statistical analysis revealed a significant improvement in the perception of the enhanced central bank communication compared to the original text. The mean aggregate score increased from 2.5 (SD = 3.0) for the original text to 12.7 (SD = 2.5) for the revised version, demonstrating a substantial positive shift in sentiment.
Authors: Darya Dubinina, Fernando Leon, Timur Zakarin, Lyudmila Zavadskaya
Curators: Alina Evstigneeva